ATP World Tour Finals 2015 Tips

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Rafael NadalGroup B Winner5/2Sportingbet

Andy Murray was handed a boost on Friday when the draw for the ATP Tour Finals took place, with the Scot finding himself in a group with Stan Wawkinka, Rafa Nadal and David Ferrer, avoiding Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic as a result.

From a punting perspective it has only made the tournament more intriguing of course, as one has to wonder just how commited Murray would be if finding himself behind in any match – he considered missing the event altogether to concentrate on preparing for the Davis Cup Final, but was eventually persuaded to take part.

Novak Djokovic is the red-hot favourite to win the event, and it’s hard to argue with the bookmakers’ quotes of 8/15 about him doing that. He is the man everyone can’t beat in 2015 and his statistics for the season are remarkable. He’s won three out of four Grand Slams this season and has also banked three of the five Masters series events he has entered (reaching the final in the other two).

Federer should be his closest challenger given the pace of the London courts and that the Swiss has enjoyed a great season compared to 2014, where he looked to be on the way out to many.

This is an event where the cream really do rise to the top – looking at the eight men in attendance, only three have winning records here – Djokovic, Federer and Nadal. Of course the Spaniard is struggling to perform at his best now and is just 58-19 for the season. Compare that to Djokovic (78-5), Murray (68-12) and Federer (59-10) and you get the feeling that Nadal won’t really be expecting much.

In Group A, Djokovic and Federer look near certs to progress. Tomas Berdych has never beaten either on Indoor Hard Courts, while Kei Nishikori is 1-2 versus Djokovic and 0-2 against Federer on the surface. Djokovic is just 4/11 to win the group and that should essentially be the odds that he beats Federer in their encounter.

In the second group, Murray will be delighted to have avoided the biggest names. He holds a 4-1 surface advantage over Ferrer (and 11-6 advantage overall), while he has edged Wawrinka 8-6 over previous meetings. But, he does has a poor record against Nadal – losing 6-15 on the H2H and 1-2 on the surface, so that is likely to be his biggest trouble.

The group looks tough to call, but we are going to favour Nadal at 5/2. Not only does he hold that record over Murray, but he is also 13-3 over Wawrinka (2-1 on surface) and 23-6 over Ferrer (1-2 on surface), so has what it takes to come out on top.

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Rafael NadalGroup B Winner5/2Sportingbet