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Australian Open 2016 Tips

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Novak DjokovicTournament Winner8/11Paddy Power, Betfair
Andy MurrayTo Reach The Final2/1Bet365

Friday’s draw was kind to Andy Murray ahead of the first slam of the year, as he was pitched into the opposite side of the draw to Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, and the British World Number 2 will fancy his chances in a side which could see him meet David Ferrer in the quarter finals and Stanislav Wawrinka in the semi-finals.

Murray has a 12 month 30-9 surface record against Top 100 players (77%) which is the strongest record in the bottom side of the draw, and also boasts the only winning record versus Top 10 players on hard courts apart from Djokovic over the past 12 months, with seven wins and five defeats.

With consistent improvement throughtout 2015, Murray is a solid 1/2 favourite to come out on top of the 4th quarter – he’ll need to beat David Ferrer, Bernard Tomic or John Isner in all likelihood to reach the semi-finals.

His stats suggest he should make the semi-finals with ease, and he’d be a decent favourite against either Wawrinka or Nadal to complete the job – he has a 7-4 head to head with Nadal on hard courts, and a 6-3 advantage over Wawrinka. Back Murray at 2/1 to reach the final is the advice here.

Moving to the top of the draw for our headline tip, Novak Djokovic is the man to be shot at here after winning four of the last five renewals at Melbourne, and we reckon he’s a big bet at 8/11 this week.

It’s not just on these courts where he has dominated – he’s won the last 7 tournaments he has entered, and won 15 of his last 18 matches against Top 10 players on hard courts. In fact, its more than a year since the Serb entered a tournament and didn’t reach the final, and the market simply doesn’t reflect the level of dominance he has been displaying over a prolonged period. We’ll push the boat out and recommend a max bet on Djokovic.

In the 2nd Quarter, Federer has been chalked up as the 5/4 favourite, but he has a relatively poor 6-5 advantage over Tomas Berdych on the surface, and we’re not convinced he’s a certainty to be in the semi-finals, especially when you factor in the home advantage that Nick Kyrgios will enjoy and the quality of Marin Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov in the same section. He’s likely to run into someone in form in the quarter finals, and that might not be altogether straightforward.

Finally, in the 3rd Section, the market asks us to choose between Wawrinka, Nadal and Raonic, and we reckon Nadal could be the value at 9/4 if you wanted to have an interest in this part of the draw. Nadal warmed up for the event by reaching the final in Doha and also winning the Mubadala – beating Raonic in the final, so he’s in decent nick. Wawrinka of course won the Chennai event, but the field was weak and we shouldn’t read too much into it.

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Novak DjokovicTournament Winner8/11Paddy Power, Betfair
Andy MurrayTo Reach The Final2/1Bet365