Our weekly review of the latest betting news, with tennis at Queens Club and the US Open golf at Oakmont Country Club both taking place this week.
1. Toms the outside pick for US Open
The second golf major of the year takes place at Oakmont this week, where Jason Day heads the betting for the US Open. But if you’re looking for an outsider then you could do worse than a bet on David Toms. The Oakmont layout is one of the most difficult in the States, with careful positioning vital to avoid the punishing bunkers and to get the ball to stick on lightning-fast greens. Toms is one of the straighest-hitters around and he comes to Oakmont on the back of a strong performance at the St Jude Classic. The last time the US Open was staged at this venue, in 2007, Toms was the only player not to card a score of 74 or above, with rounds 72, 72, 73 and 72 to share fifth place. He is available at 400/1 with Coral, who are paying 7 places.
2. England backed to beat Wales despite opening draw
England’s opening Euro 2016 game against Russia may have ended in disappointment, but for the most part Roy Hodgson’s men played well and posed a much greater threat than their opponents. Wales, too, were impressive as they beat Slovakia in Bordeaux, with Joe Allen particularly impressive as he ran the midfield. The two nations now go head-to-head in Lens on Thursday and ahead of the game punters have been rushing to back England, encouraged by the manner of their performance if not the result. Prior to the tournament, England were priced as high as 5/6 to defeat the Welsh, but they are now no bigger than the 8/13 on offer from Bet365 – a price which surely does not give enough credit to Chris Coleman’s well-organised side.
3. Murray 6/4 for fifth Queen’s title
As he continues his preparations for Wimbledon, Andy Murray is the 6/4 favourite with BetVictor and Coral to win the Aegon Championship at Queen’s Club. Murray has won this event four times – every other year since 2009 – following the lead of Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick, who dominated the London tournament before him. There has been some interest in backing Richard Gasquet, who has been cut to 14/1, as well as the veteran Juan Martin Del Potro, who reached the semi-finals of last week’s grass court event in Stuttgart, now best price 20/1 at Betfred, but Stan Wawrinka, at 9/1 with BetVictor, should pose the biggest threat.
4. Fixture release to prompt wave of new markets
The European Championships may be dominating the headlines, but the fixtures for the new Premier League season are released this week and should generate a fresh wave of interest in ante-post betting. The bookies can expect a flurry of bets on every outsider following Leicester’s success last season, which should guarantee them a healthy position across the book and while most firms only have a handful of markets out at the present time, that is sure to change pretty quickly in the coming days. William Hill are the first to offer prices on teams to Stay Up in the Premier League, and their price of 4/6 about a solid Middlesbrough side holds some appeal.
5. Brexit price shortening as polls suggest equal split
Three weeks ago we suggested that it might be the best time to take a punt on the British public to vote to leave the European Union at odds of 15/4, and if you did so you might now be feeling that you have a value bet on the outcome of the June 23rd referendum. Over the last couple of weeks the polls have suggested that there is very little to choose between the Remain and Leave camps and it is probably only the weight of money that was taken on Remain in the early months of the betting that is keeping the two sides so far apart in the current market. The odds on a Brexit are now just 2/1, with Remain having reached its biggest price of 4/9 at Betfred. With the campaigning set to intesify as the vote draws nearer, expect the gap to close even more.