We preview both of the televised Boxing Day Premier League games, kicking off with Watford v Crystal Palace at lunchtime, followed by Hull v Manchester City.
Watford v Crystal Palace
Monday 26th December / 12.30pm
|Over 2.5||Total Goals||23/20||Betfair|
|Watford 2-1||Correct Score||11/1||Bet365|
|Watford 3-1||Correct Score||22/1||Bet365|
|Etienne Capoue (ew)||First Goalscorer||12/1||Bet365|
A new manager for the Eagles, whose fans will be hoping that Big Sam can work his magic and ensure that they avoid the drop after just six league wins in 2016.
Watford have lost four of their last five league games, but they have only lost one of their last six at home (W4, D1), including wins over Manchester United and Leicester.
So, we expected them to be shorter in the betting against a side with just one win in their last 11 (L8, D2) and clearly Sam Allardyce’s return has influenced those prices.
But that 8/5 on Watford looks to represent value here – back them to win and also the 2-1 and 3-1 Correct Scores at best price 11/1 and 22/1 respectively with Bet365.
Eight of the last nine Palace league games have seen Over 2.5 Goals and although Allardyce has a more defensive approach than Alan Pardew, shoring up the leaky Palace defence could take a while – take Betfair’s 23/20 on another Over 2.5 Goals.
Finally, Etienne Capoue – Watford’s top league goalscorer with five – looks massively overpriced at the 12/1 with Bet365 to score the first goal (as short as 7/1 elsewhere).
Hull v Manchester City
Monday 26th December / 5.30pm
|Hull (+2)||Asian Handicap||1/2||Bet365|
|Manchester City 2-1||Correct Score||17/2||BetVictor|
|Robert Snodgrass (ew)||First Goalscorer||16/1||Bet365|
The Tigers are an incredible 9/1 with Paddy Power to win at home on Boxing Day, but then they have only won one of their last 15 league games (L11, D3).
However, Manchester City did lose their last away game 4-2 at Leicester, while they only managed to beat both Palace and Burnley 1-2 the times before that too.
So, our first tip is to back Hull getting a two goal start at 1/2 with Bet365 on the Asian Handicap, meaning that they need to lose by three clear goals for us to lose.
However, we doubt they can pull off an upset here and suggest backing both a 1-1 draw, plus another 2-1 City away win at best odds of 11/1 and 17/2 respectively.
When a home side are such a huge price to win, we like to back their top goalscorer to score first at an inflated price – and set piece expert Robert Snodgrass fits the bill.
The Scot has scored in two of Hull’s last three home games and he can be backed each-way at 16/1 with Bet365 to open the scoring (as short as 9/1 elsewhere).