Italian Grand Prix 2015 Tips

Sky-Sports-F1 Sunday 6th September / 1pm

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Nico Rosberg (ew)Race Winner11/4Ladbrokes, Sky Bet
Valtteri BottasPodium Finish10/3Sky Bet
Nico HulkenbergTop 6 Finish5/4Sky Bet
Marcus EricssonPoints Finish4/1Sky Bet
Felipe NasrPoints Finish7/2Ladbrokes, Sky Bet

Yet another Mercedes master class in Belgium a fortnight ago is ominous ahead of Monza, given what a good guide the Belgian result has often been to success in Italy.

Mercedes have now won nine of the 11 races in 2015, and claimed no fewer than 20 of the 22 podium spots available to them. Having seen them top the time sheets with ease in both FP1 and FP2, it’s no surprise to see Hamilton as short as 2/5 for the race win, and Rosberg no longer than 3/1. This brings us quickly to our first bet.

Nico Rosberg looks an each way steal at 11/4 with the firms offering 1/3rd each-way terms for a first two finish. With three wins and five second places this season, level stakes on Rosberg at 11/4 would have paid a profit over the season of 2.4 pts from 22pts staked – a 10%+ ROI. This track looks to suit them better than ever and it’s fair to say that ROI was unduly punished in Hungary where Rosberg was unlucky not to podium, or potentially even win, had they taken a different strategy.

Moving a little further down the order, both Red Bulls have taken engine penalties and will start from the back of the grid, so are unlikely to trouble the podium spots. The single place left (assuming a Mercedes 1-2) will probably be contested by Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari (13/8), the Williams pair of Bottas (10/3) and Massa (9/2) and potentially even the Force India’s of Hulkenberg (7/1) and Perez (7/1) who looked so good in Belgium.

We reckon Bottas could be the man, although Williams, as usual, haven’t shown their hand yet. They don’t look far away on the Friday times and the low-downforce nature of Monza should suit their set-up and the Mercedes power unit. 10/3 for a podium finish looks acceptable value.

That leaves the Top 6 battle between those mentioned and potentially the Lotus’ of Grosjean and Maldonado. Looking at the prices, the 1/3 on Vettel simply looks too short to spark interest, as does the 4/11 on Bottas and 1/2 on Massa. We prefer to look to Hulkenberg who was unlucky to falter on the grid in Spa and could have been in for a tremendous result otherwise. At 5/4 he looks fair value for the Top 6.

In the points market, we reckon there is a chance that Sauber’s Ferrari engine could be stronger than the Renault’s in front and behind, and that could bring Marcus Ericsson into the equation once again at the expense of the likes of Verstappen, Sainz, Ricciardo and Kyvat. All four of those men look set for penalty committing engine changes, so backing Ericsson for a points finish at 4/1 appeals, as does the 7/2 on Felipe Nasr. They both looked quicker than the Toro Rosso pair on Friday and so might only need a retirement or two ahead of them to start collecting nice points.

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Nico Rosberg (ew)Race Winner11/4Ladbrokes, Sky Bet
Valtteri BottasPodium Finish10/3Sky Bet
Nico HulkenbergTop 6 Finish5/4Sky Bet
Marcus EricssonPoints Finish4/1Sky Bet
Felipe NasrPoints Finish7/2Ladbrokes, Sky Bet