Monaco Grand Prix 2015 Tips

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Max VerstappenTop 6 Finish11/4Bet365, Ladbrokes, BetVictor
Carlos Sainz JrTop 6 Finish3/1BetVictor
Nico RosbergPole Position7/5Bet365
Sergio PerezPoints Finish11/4BetVictor, Winner, Titanbet
Nico HulkenbergPonts Finish5/2Bet365, Ladbrokes, BetVictor

skysports-f1 Sunday 24th March / 1pm

The F1 tour takes many of its drivers home this weekend as they prepare to do battle on the streets surrounding their apartments, and there are a few golden rules punters should be aware of when it comes to betting on the Monaco Grand Prix.

The first of these is that the final sector at Barcelona is historically a very good indicator of how each competitor may go on to perform at Monaco. The nature of the tight twisty final sequence of turns in Spain is broadly representative of the mechanical grip required to get round Monte Carlo streets.

Mercedes put themselves well on top in Spain, but it was this sector which saw them get their huge edge. They were only 1/10th quicker than the pack in the first sector and 2/10ths quicker than Vettel in the second, but in the final sector they were a full 6/10th quicker than their nearest rival.

The Ferrari was strong in the final sector and so was Williams, but chasing hard was the Toro Rosso package for Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz – the pair were within 3/10ths of Vettel in 3rd for instance, and they could be capable of a really strong show this weekend.

In deciding how to support the pair brings us to the second rule. Try to find bigger prices when placing bets at Monaco. The unforgiving walls and relentless gear changes have a habit of combining to lower the expected finishers and, as such, you don’t want to be placing too many odds-on bets. In short, it can be unpredictable.

To support the Toro Rosso then, we will avoid the odds-on prices on them finishing in the points (although they probably will) and hope to profit from one of the top teams failing, allowing them to sneak into the Top 6 places. We’ve already seen that they have the pace round here in the opening two practice sessions and odds of 11/4 for Max Verstappen and 3/1 about Carlos Sainz Jr are enough to tempt us in.

Given we can confidently predict a Mercedes front row come Sunday, and that Nico Rosberg has been a very competent competitor here over the years, we should also consider backing the German to win qualifying on Saturday at best odds of 7/5. He controversially took pole position before stopping on track in 2014, but also won from pole in 2013, and finished second in 2012, so he has strong pedigree here.

Finally, the Force India pair of Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez are not being rated highly by the bookmakers after a run or poor races, but Monaco could provide an opportunity for them to punch a little above their weight this weekend and it would be a surprise to see them as uncompetitive as they have been in recent weeks. Priced as the outsiders for a points finish (with the exception of the Monro cars) gives us some room for manoeuvre, and we reckon the 11/4 on Perez or the 5/2 on Hulkenberg both provide some sound value.

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Max VerstappenTop 6 Finish11/4Bet365, Ladbrokes, BetVictor
Carlos Sainz JrTop 6 Finish3/1BetVictor
Nico RosbergPole Position7/5Bet365
Sergio PerezPoints Finish11/4BetVictor, Winner, Titanbet
Nico HulkenbergPonts Finish5/2Bet365, Ladbrokes, BetVictor