This weekend’s televised Premier League action, includes a Super Sunday featuring Everton v Liverpool and Arsenal v Man United – we preview all four of the TV games.
Crystal Palace v West Brom
Saturday 3rd October / 12.45pm
|West Brom 1-0||Correct Score||13/1||BetVictor|
|Under 2.5||Total Goals||8/11||Betfred|
|Saido Berahino||First Goalscorer||17/2||Bet365|
Palace are 7th in the table, just a point behind Arsenal and 2 points below odds-on favourites Manchester City after 7 games, despite having lost to both of those sides.
The first thing to note is that Alan Pardew doesn’t really do draws – at least that has been the case since he arrived at Selhurst Park at the start of the year, from when Palace have played 29 games in all competitions and drawn just once (also just one draw in his last 13 games at Newcastle).
This season Palace’s league record reads W4, L3, while last season under Pardew it was W10, D1, L7 – and it is also worth noting that of those 10 league defeats, 7 were at Selhurst Park – including a 0-2 defeat loss to West Brom in April.
Another feature of Pardew’s reign at Palace to date is their difficulty in keeping clean sheets – the first one of this campaign came last weekend at Watford, but that was just the third time in 25 league games that the Eagles defence has shut up shop.
By direct comparison, former Eagles boss Tony Pulis – who arrived at West Brom at the same time as Pardew at Palace – has overseen 7 draws and a remarkable 14 clean sheets in his first 25 league games at the helm at The Hawthorns.
A true contrast therefore, but the one thing they have in common this year is that their sides have both performed better away from home – with the Baggies having lost just 3 of 12 away games under Pulis (two of which were at Man City & Arsenal).
Given that Palace have lost 5 of their last 7 league games at home and West Brom have only lost one of their last seven league away games (W4, D2), the visitors look good value at 4/1 to win here, as they did last season.
West Brom have won their last two away games 1-0, while all of Palace’s last three games have finished 1-0 or 0-1 (W1, L2), so we also recommend backing the Baggies to win 1-0 at stand-out odds of 13/1 with BetVictor (as short as 9/1 elsewhere).
Six of their last seven games on the road have featured less than three goals (an average of just 0.66 total goals per away game this season) and so backing Under 2.5 Goals also looks a shrewd investment at best odds of 8/11 with Betfred.
Finally, Saido Berahino has returned to the fold for the Baggies in style, scoring the first goal in both of his two starts and the want-away striker can be backed at a generous looking price of 17/2 with Bet365 to make that three games in a row.
Chelsea v Southampton
Saturday 3rd October / 5.30pm
|Yes||Both Teams To Score||4/5||Bet365|
These sides drew 1-1 in both meetings last season and it’s hard to bet on Chelsea at odds-on here given their dreadful start to the season – just two wins in their first seven league games (D2, L3), plus the midweek Champions League defeat in Porto.
But the Saints haven’t won on the road since February (drawing all 3 away games so far this season), so it’s also difficult to justify backing them at best odds of 17/4 with Coral and another draw looks better value at a stand-out 14/5 with Stan James.
Defensively the Blues have looked all over the place, conceding two or more goals in six of their seven league games this season, but they have scored in every game at Stamford Bridge since the start of last season, so a bet on both teams to score looks a decent investment here at 4/5 with Bet365.
Given that 15 of Southampton’s last 20 away games have featured less than three goals, a bet on a repeat of last season’s 1-1 also looks worthwhile at best price 7/1.
Everton v Liverpool
Sunday 4th October / 1.30pm
|Steven Naismith (ew)||First Goalscorer||8/1||Bet365|
|Daniel Sturridge||First Goalscorer||6/1||William Hill|
After 10 derbies in all competitions without a win, it comes as a slight surprise to see that Everton are favourites with most bookmakers on Sunday.
Granted, they play at home, but in their last 17 league meetings at Goodison Park dating back to the 1998-99 season, the Blues have only won this fixture three times, while Liverpool have won nine, with five draws.
However, given that the Toffees have lost just four of their last 19 home matches and that five of the last six Merseyside Derbies (including the last three at Goodison) have been draws, the best value is surely the 12/5 on offer for another stalemate, while best odds of 6/1 and 15/1 on the 1-1 and 2-2 scorelines respectively look fair.
Romelu Lukaku has been impressing, but he tends to perform better on the road, with his style more suited to scoring on the counter attack – he has only scored one goal (a penalty) at Goodison Park in 2015. With that in mind, we will swerve him as the relatively short priced favourite in the First Goalscorer market and go for the in-form Steven Naismith at 8/1 with Bet365.
We also want to be with Daniel Sturridge, who has scored 6 goals in his last 8 games against Everton and has returned from injury in goal scoring form. The 6/1 on offer with William Hill for him to score first is the best in the industry and that firm will give you your money back if he scores the second goal, or if the match finishes 0-0.
Arsenal v Manchester United
Sunday 4th October / 4pm
|Manchester United (+0.5)||Asian Handicap||10/11||BetVictor|
|Under 2.5||Total Goals||Evens||Bet365|
|Manchester United 1-0||Correct Score||8/1||BetVictor|
|Manchester United 2-0||Correct Score||25/1||BetVictor|
|Antony Martial||First Goalscorer||15/2||Bet365|
|Juan Mata||First Goalscorer||11/1||Bet365|
United won this fixture 2-1 last season courtesy of a 97th minute winner – in fact the game was 0-0 after 84 minutes – and they have a decent record at the Emirates, having won on four of their last seven visits in all competitions (D2, L1).
Indeed, Arsenal have their lowest Premier League win percentage (24%) against United, so you cannot back them with much confidence at best odds of 11/10.
Add that to the fact that Arsenal have now won just two of their last seven home games in the league – and we feel that we should be backing the away side at a huge looking 14/5 with BetVictor.
We also suggest backing the visitors on the Asian Handicap getting a half goal start at a best price of 10/11 with the same bookmaker – so you win if Arsenal don’t.
Arsenal have at least kept clean sheets in their last two home league games and we think Under 2.5 Goals looks worth a bet at evens with Bet365, while we also suggest backing the 0-1 and 0-2 away wins at best odds of 8/1 and 25/1 respectively.
It is worth noting here that if you place a pre-match bet on this game with Bet365 they will give you a risk-free bet of the same stake – up to £50 free here.
Finally, we recommend backing young sensation Antony Martial to score first at best odds of 15/2, as well as Juan Mata (who scored in United’s last away match) at 11/1.