Our tennis betting expert returns to offer his daily betting tips for Wimbledon 2016 – check back every day for his best bets and to see how the tips fare.
|TIPS||WINNERS||LOSERS||PROFIT/LOSS (to a £10 level stake)|
Day 14 – Sunday 10th July
Milos Raonic v Andy Murray
My outright tip of Andy Murray to win Wimbledon is looking good after he beat Tomas Berdych in straight sets to set up a final with Milos Raonic – who is in his first Grand Slam Final. We’ve already returned on the place part, so having a 1/4 shot in the final at 7/2 gives us a good position to look at the match again.
For Murray, this is his 11th Grand Slam final, but his first against someone other than Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer. It’s not a bad time for him to play Raonic of course – he’s beaten him the past five times they have met (to hold a 6-3 head to head record) and one of those was in the final of Queens just three weeks ago.
Since that meeting, Murray has had a much easier time of it, and should be feeling fresher than his rival. He’s played 182 games over his six matches, while Raonic has played 244. While much will be made of Raonic’s big serve, it’s worth noting that he has been broken five times this tournament, while Murray’s serve has been found out 8 times. They have each been forced to attempt to save 27 break points, suggesting Murray’s serve has been in just as good nick as Raonic’s.
Murray also has a 20-2 winning record against the Top 10 biggest servers, which should bode well ahead of this one, and on balance we should be content to sit on our 7/2 in the bank and move into the specials markets.
I’ve backed a couple of 1st set tie-breaks this tournament (without success) but I’ll buck the trend and back the 4/6 on No 1st Set tie-break in this one. Murray has the quality to break his opponent and the pair have shared just one tie-break in the 1st set in their 9 previous matches.
I am also heading for the ‘Serve Markets’ at Ladbrokes’ with their offer of 4/6 on Murray to serve Under 2.5 Double Faults. The Scot has served six at Wimbledon so far, over 182 games – in other words 0.033 per game.
Taking that as an average into this game suggests he’d be expected to serve down 1.33 over a 40 game match (the current game line). Even if this went into five sets and lengthen to somewhere around the mid 50s, I’d still expect to be odds-on to be a winner, and that’s far from likely. The 4/6 looks terrific value.
The Raonic line also looks a touch long with the same firm at under/over 5.5 at 5/6 each side. I like the unders here with an expectancy put in for more like 4.5 than 5.5. That bet would have won in four of his six champiohship matches so far, with the two losers being his 49 game match with David Goffin and his epic 53 game encounter with Federer.
|No||Set 1 Tie Break?||4/6||Bet365|
|Under 2.5||Total Murray Double Faults||4/6||Ladbrokes|
|Under 5.5||Total Raonic Double Faults||5/6||Ladbrokes|
Day 13 – Saturday 9th July
Serena Williams v Angelique Kerber
Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber go to battle on Saturday, with the 13/8 pre-tournament favourite now just 2/7 to win the final. And Williams holds a 5-2 head-to-head advantage over the German, but Kerber won their last meeting in the Autralian Open Final and that was their only match inside the last two years.
In terms of tournament form, Williams has dropped just a single set, and hasn’t faced a break point in her past two matches so appears to have everything under control. Thus far, she has broken her opponents 27 times this tournament and had her serve broke just six times. Kerber by contrast has broken her opponents 28 times, but her serve has been far more brittle, losing 12 service matches.
It’s easy to see why the bookmakers are making Serena a strong favourite, and I don’t see enough value in the match betting markets to get involved. Instead, we should head to the specials markets, where Serena Williams should be backed to fire down the most double faults at even money with Sky Bet.
Serena has double faulted 19 times in 116 games this Wimbledon, over twice as many as Kerber – 9 in 114 games. There should be a lot more between the pair than the odds suggest and so I’ll confidently back Serena in this market.
|Serena Williams||Most Double Faults||Evens||Sky Bet|
Day 11 – Thursday 7th July
Angelique Kerber v Venus Williams
Venus Williams will be feeling the pain of a gruelling run to the semi-finals when she meets Angelique Kerber, but I am backing the American to reach her first Grand Slam final since Wimbledon 2008 at odds of 9/4.
Williams hasn’t had things easy this week, but she’s got the job done, and back-to-back straight sets wins will have gone someway towards helping her body recover from the long 40 game match against Darya Kasatkina in the third round.
Grass has always been Williams’ best surface, with an 86-17 career record, and for that reason the treble your money quotes look too long.
Kerber is no mug (she is number 4 in the world of course) but her 50-22 record on the surface isnt as impressive and recent three year form shows her fast court stats behind those of Venus – she is 1-4 versus top ten players compared to 2-2 for Venus, and 10-6 versus 10th-50th players, while Venus is 4-0.
All in all, this should be a close one and so I’ll get aboard the outsider.
|Venus Williams||Match Winner||9/4||Bet365, Sky Bet|
Day 10 – Wednesday 6th July
Sam Querrey v Milos Raonic
We came close to the first set breaker in Querrey v Mahut on Monday, only for a break at 5-4 to give Querrey the set 6-4, but I am going to try again as Querrey takes on Milos Raonic for a place in the semi-finals.
Ranked 3rd and 11th for Service Games won in 2016, these two are both huge servers, but only rank 65th and 71st on the return games won and it’s fair to say we won’t see a great many breaks of serve in this one.
Coral have shown early with 6/4 on offer about a 1st Set Breaker, and that looks too good to turn down in this one – it should arguably shorter than in Querrey v Mahut, where 11/8 represented a decent slice of value.
I’m also going to take a similar approach on the total games, where a 4-setter would almost certainly land the over 43.5 line at 5/6 with Ladbrokes.
|Yes||Set 1 Tie Break?||6/4||Coral|
|Over 43.5||Total Games||5/6||Ladbrokes|
Day 9 – Tuesday 5th July
I can find no value in Tuesday’s matches, so no tips today.
Day 8 – Monday 4th July
Sam Querrey v Nicolas Mahut
The first match to jump out from the coupon on Monday is between Sam Querrey and Nicolas Mahut, where I fancy attacking the same angle with two bets.
Both big servers – Querrey ranks number 11 in the world for games won on serve and Mahut is a decent enough 39th, while Querrey is just 71st in the rankings for return games won and Mahut 65th. This match therefore looks set for very few breaks of serve. We can deduce a number of things from that fact – firstly, sets should be long – with tie breaks highly likely. Secondly, given the first factor, sets should also be tight, and a 3-0 either way looks unlikely such will be the margins.
This brings me to the first bet. A tie break in the first set at odds of 11/8 with Coral, which I believe should be shorter. Looking at Querrey’s record in particular against big servers over the past three years, and he’s played 9 matches against men identified in my database as being the strongest at holding serve – 7 of those have a produced a first set tie break. Mahut on the same index has played nine and seen breakers in three.
Looking across both players’ matches in that sample, and the average games per set has been 11 – a number which could arguably be higher given that Monday’s game is on Grass. With Over 3.5 sets trading at a general 4/9, I reckon it’s worth betting “over 43.5 games” at close to evens with 888sport. It’s 4/9 to go to 4 sets, and if it does the average games per set would see this bet win. Looking again for a moment at Querrey’s record versus big servers and in 23 sets, he has played in only two which went fewer than 10 games and 13 which went went to breakers.
|Yes||Set 1 Tie Break?||11/8||Coral|
|Over 43.5||Total Games||15/16||888sport|
Marin Cilic v Kei Nishikori
Staying with the men, and I think Kei Nishikori is being slightly underrated in his match up with Marin Cilic – a tussle the Japanese leads 7-3 on the head to heads.
Nishikori has been the far more consistent player against top opponents in the past 2 years, recording a 51-26 record against Top 50 players (10-5 on fast courts) and a 29-24 record vs Top 25 (4-4 on quick courts). Cilic is a more modest 20-23 (8-9 on quick courts) vs Top 50 and 8-19 (4-5 on quick courts) vs Top 25. Coupling the head-to-head record with those stats puts Nishikori a league above and the 3/4 available on the Japanese looks too long to leave on the table at Betfair.
|Kei Nishikori||Match Winner||3/4||Betfair|
Agnieszka Radwanska v Dominika Cibulkova
In the Ladies, I are going to continue my trust in Dominika Cibulkova whose been enjoying a tremendous run lately. She won Eastbourne dropping just a single set, and beating Radwanska and Pliskova along the way, and has reached the fourth round without dropping a set here as yet, so I reckon a repeat of that victory over Radwanska could be on the cards once again when the pair meet on Monday.
Ciblkova has a fine 34-19 career grass record, so is perfectly adept to playing the surface, and while Radwanksa has a more impressive 64-23 record, her 18-14 record against Top 100 players in the last two years is less impressive when compared to Cibulkova’s 16-11 and current form. The Pole holds a 7-5 advantage in the head-to-head, but she has lost 5 of the last 8 meetings between the players – most notably a week ago on grass.
With 13/10 still available on Cibulkova, that looks the best play in this one.
|Dominika Cibulkova||Match Winner||13/10||Bet365, BetVictor|
Day 7 – Sunday 3rd July
Barbora Strycova v Ekaterina Makarova
Wimbledon organisers have waived the middle rest day to ensure the remaining 3rd round matches get played before the second week commences, and I think Barbora Strycova could be one of those progressing into the fourth round today.
She meets Ekaterina Makarova for the 3rd time at SW19, with the honours shared so far, although those matches were back in 2007 and 2009 so it’s hard to read much into them when predicting this one.
Instead I’ve looked at the players records against Top 100 and Top 50 players over the past two seasons, where Czech Strycova looks the more appealing. She has a 46-37 2-year record across all surfaces, with the fast courts standing out for her best performances, with a 13-7 record over grass and indoors. Makaraova is a marginally less impressive 33-28, but she is significantly behind on fast courts at 4-4. Looking a the Top 50 Record, and Strycova is 25-25 across all surfaces, and 7-5 on quick courts, while Makarova is 19-25 and 3-3 on the quicker courts.
On balance I’d have Strycova as the favourite here, but she can be backed at even money across the board, so looks worth a chance.
|Barbora Strycova||Match Winner||Evens||Generally|
Day 6 – Saturday 2nd July
Dominika Cibulkova v Eugenie Bouchard
The men’s fixtures have thrown up nothing of interest for the weekend, so I’ll head straight to the women’s where Dominika Cibulkova is taken to beat Eugenie Bouchard.
Cibulkova is in absolutely terrific form after winning Eastbourne – knocking out Radwanska and Pliskova along the way, and has cruised through the opening two rounds without dropping a set. With a career 33-19 surface record, she’s certainly comfortable on grass, and also has a decent indoors record to back that up.
Bouchard has a more modest 26-17 record on grass, and is 30 spots lower in the world rankings, so will have her work cut out here. All in all, Cibulkova looks the much stronger player, and 4/6 is a fair price for a player I expect to dominate.
|Dominika Cibulkova||Match Winner||4/6||BetVictor|
Day 5 – Friday 1st July
Lucas Pouille v Donald Young
For my first pick of the day I’m going to plump for a player who has risen rapidly up the world rankings, in the shape of Lucas Pouille as he faces Donald Young.
Pouille ony broke the top 100 in March 2015, but his rise into the Top 30 has been consistent and this could well be a tournament in which he makes a mark given that the winner of this will face Wawrinka or Del Potro.
The bookmakers are struggling to split the pair, but with similar two year stats on all the surface metrics, I’m happy to side with an up and coming player who is improving against a steady eddie that is Young every day of the week.
While Young has been decent enough on grass over his career, he’s not pulled up any trees, and Pouille won their only encounter 6-1 6-2 on clay back in 2014.
Even money looks a sound investment in this one.
|Lucas Pouille||Match Winner||Evens||Bet365, Sky Bet|
Marin Cilic v Lukas Lacko
Staying with the men, a Marin Cilic 3-0 victory surely looks on the cards when he takes on Lukas Lacko in the 3rd round, and odds of 5/6 with Coral look too long.
The pair have met three times before, with Cilic winning all six sets, and he’s come past Brian Baker and Sergiy Stakhovsky without too much fuss so far. Lacko could be suffering from fatigue after four set matches in final qualifying, as well as both the 1st and 2nd rounds, and this could be a step too far for him.
With a 12-4 record at Wimbledon over the past four seasons, and a 25-6 record against players ranked 10th-100th in the world on grass, Cilic ticks most boxes – back the 3-0 at marginally odds-on, as this one should be as easy as they come.
|Marin Cilic 3-0||Set Betting||5/6||Coral|
Day 4 – Thursday 30th June
Another day mostly lost to rain means a limited number of new matches for our consideration, but I’ll crack on looking for the value in the meantime.
Andrey Kuznetsov v Gilles Muller
I’ll kick off with Gilles Muller at 5/8 to beat Andrey Kuznetsov given the pair are poles apart when it comes to the surface. Muller has enjoyed a terrific warm up to Wimbledon, reaching the final in Hertegonbosch, the quarters at Queens and then the semi-final in Nottingham – taking him to a two season 11-6 record on grass against Top 100 players.
He’ll be playing his 100th carreer grass match on Thursday, so it should be a big day for Muller, and he’s always opted for the faster surfaces where his big serve can break down his opponents.
Kuznetsov is much more of a clay courter, so while little separates them in the overall rankings, that shouldn’t be confused with thinking this one will be close. Kuznetsov played just one warm up event on grass, losing to Ivo Karlovic in the first round of Halle.
|Gilles Muller||Match Winner||5/8||Unibet, 888sport|
Yulia Putintseva vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Over in the ladies, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova should be backed at 9/10 to beat Yulia Putintseva in the 2nd round. The Russian progressed at the expense of Su-Wei Hsieh, and whilst it was far from plain sailing, her record against Top 100 players is significantly better than Putinseva, and she is capable on all surfaces.
Putinseva has a disappointing 19-31 record against Top 100 players over the past two seasons, including three defeats on grass for no wins, and she looks set to be dominated in this one.
|Anastasia Pavlyunchenkova||Match Winner||9/10||Paddy Power|
Eugenie Bouchard v Johanna Konta
Finally, a chance to back a Brit at Wimbledon at value prices doesn’t happen too often, but Johanna Konta should be trusted to topple Canadian Eugenie Bouchard when the pair meet. This looks a terrific second round match up, but Konta has had the stronger 12 month form, and that confidence she has found in slams should carry her to victory here.
Ranked 19th in the world now, Konta reached the semi-finals at Eastbourne, beating Petra Kvitova along the way to the final, and she has a decent 41-25 record against Top 100 players over the past two seasons (and 10-7 on grass).
That compares well to Bouchard who is 30-23 (5-5 on grass) and is now ranked 48th in the world. Bouchard hasn’t lived up to her considerable promise as a junior yet, and we are inclined to think this won’t be her year again. Back Konta at 8/11 is the advice.
|Johanna Konta||Match Winner||8/11||William Hill|
Day 3 – Wednesday 29th June
We are still well set in the enjoyment stakes for Wednesday, with all three of our Tuesday bets carrying forward, weather permitting.
Nicolas Mahut v David Ferrer
David Ferrer looks a great value way of adding to our portfolio at odds of 4/6 vs Nicolas Mahut – a man famed for his epic encounter with John Isner a few years ago. Mahut is a big server but his record doesn’t match that of Ferrer, who relies on one of the best return games in the industry to break his opponents down.
Mahut has a 3-4 Wimbledon record over the past four seasons, while Ferrer boasts an impressive 9-3 record on the courts of SW19, but it is their comparative records against players ranked 10th-100th that really stands out ahead of this one. Ferrer has a 19-4 record over the last three years on that metric, compared to just 18-13 for Mahut, and that suggests Ferrer should be shorter than he is.
Mahut won Hertenbosch a fortnight ago in great fashion, before giving Andy Murray a good match at Queens, but I am edged into this bet by the manner in which Ferrer defeated Dudi Sela on Monday – an absolute demolition job.
|David Ferrer||Match Winner||4/6||Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral|
Denis Istomin v Nicolas Almagro
Staying with the men, Denis Istomin looks a good thing when he meets Nicolas Almagro as he tries to extend an impressive 5-0 head-to-head record. Something just seems to click for Istomin between the pair, and he’s won 9 of the 10 sets played between the men over a variety of surfaces.
The quicker courts have always been kind to Istomin, who has a career 36-28 winning record on grass, compared to 14-15 for Almagro. Top 100 opponents have been beaten 7-4 on the surface by Istomin over the past two seasons, while Almagro is just 1-1, and he is by far and away a clay courter.
The surface is the key to this bet, and the 4/9 on offer with Ladbrokes looks a fair bet in a two horse race when Istomin holds all the aces.
|Dennis Istomin||Match Winner||4/9||Ladbrokes|
Sara Errani v Alize Cornet
Over in the women’s event, I’ll take Alize Cornet to beat Sara Errani at 4/6. The Italian has been struggling for form, and has lost 7 of her last 8 against top 100 opponents, and struggled through 6-4 6-4 against Maria Tig in the 1st round.
|Alize Cornet||Match Winner||4/6||Coral, BetVictor|
Day 2 – Tuesday 28th June
Donald Young v Leonardo Mayer
Argentine Leonardo Mayer looks to have the game to beat Donald Young when the pair meet on Tuesday, with career grass form too strong for his rival. Mayer has an 8-9 career record against Top 100 players on the surface, compared to just 3-9 for Young, and recent trends on quick courts suggest that Mayer should be a favourite in this one.
With a 60% win record at Wimbledon over the past five years, compared to Young who has three straight first round exits, the course form looks promising, while Mayer is 4-4 against players ranked 10th-50th compared to Young’s 4-7, and has a winning record against 50th-100th players compared to a losing record for Young. Furthermore, the pair met indoors a couple of years back, which Mayer won comfortably. On balance, there looks to be value in Mayer at even money.
|Leonardo Mayer||Match Winner||Evens||Bet365|
Anett Kontaveit v Barbora Strycova
In the ladies, I will take Barbora Strycova to win through comfortably against Anett Kontaveit, with 11/10 available about a 2-0 win for the Czech.
Up to World no. 26, Strycova has a decent all-surface profile, and comes into this tournaments off the back of reaching the final at the AEGON in Birmingham – she beat Karolina Pliskova and Coco Vandeweghe, so did superbly in that one – eventually losing to Madison Keys in the final. Career-wise, she has a marginal winning record against Top 100 players on the surface, while Kontaveit is 7-9 on the same metric, and has a 1-10 record indoors.
With almost 70 places between the pair in the world rankings, it is clear which of the pair has developed more quickly and this one looks a mismatch.
|Barbora Strycova 2-0||Set Betting||11/10||Paddy Power, Betfair|
Karin Knapp v Ana Konjuh
Staying with the women, Ana Konjuh looks a fair shout at 4/7 to beat Karin Knapp given her greater aptitude for the surface, and the fact that Knapp hasn’t played any warm-ups at all on grass to adjust ahead of the event. Knapp has a career 6-10 record on grass, compared to Konjuh’s 19-7, and while she retired last week from the AEGON, the neck injury she sustained shouldn’t be a problem for her.
Their grass records are further stressed when looking at records against Top 100 players, with Knapp just 1-4 over her career, and Konjuh a more promising 7-5. I make Konjuh a good favourite in this one, so the 4/7 on offer looks more than fair.
|Ana Konjuh||Match Winner||4/7||Bet365, Sky Bet, Coral|
Day 1 – Monday 27th June
Monday is a big day for British men’s tennis, with no fewer than five Brits involved in the men’s singles. Marcus Willis, Dan Evans, Alexander Ward, Kyle Edmund and Jamie Ward are all in action, but unfortunately for them, the bookmakers can only see their way to making Dan Evans favourite, with the remainder all outsiders.
Kyle Edmund v Adrian Mannarino
It is in opposing Kyle Edmund that I see our first value bet of the tournament as he takes on Frenchman and the World no.54 Adrian Mannarino – a man who has enjoyed Wimbledon over the past few years – reaching the fourth round in 2013, and the second round in each of the past two years. Edmund has been involved in each of the last three years, but hasn’t thus far managed to win a set.
While Mannarino is by no means a master on the quicker surfaces, he has a winning record over his career on both Grass and on Indoor courts which play very similar, and always opts for these types of events when he can avoid clay. Edmund, by contrast, has enjoyed his best form on the slower clay courts and has a losing grass record (11-19), which falls to 3-8 when looking at matches against Top 100 opponents. All in all, at odds of 4/7, the Frenchman looks a safe bet.
|Adrian Mannarino||Match Winner||4/7||Bet365, Sky Bet, Coral|
Borna Coric v Ivo Karlovic
Another early starting match will be the big serving Ivo Karlovic versus his fellow Croat Borna Coric. I am going for a first set Tie Break in this one – which the stats on Karlovic suggest should be short than the 8/11 on offer with Bet365. Against Top 100 players, Karlovic grass court matches have served up a first set breaker in 9 of the last 11 occasions. Coric’s only grass warm up this year at Halle saw two breakers in 3 sets against David Goffin and while his serve isn’t in the same range as Karlovic, he ranks 52nd on the ATP Serve Leaders list, so this looks a good bet.
|Yes||Set 1 Tie Break||8/11||Bet365|
Edouard Roger-Vasselin v Teymuraz Gabashvili
Edouard Roger-Vasselin looks a good thing to beat Teymuraz Gabashvili during the afternoon and address a 2-0 head-to head deficit against the Russian. Those meetings took place in 2008 and 2012 so I’m not too concerned, and their respective records indoors and on grass make a compelling case.
Gabashvili is 2-8 (grass) and 9-27 (indoors) against Top 100 players and has only been past the first round at Wimbledon once in his career, and while it’s true that Roger-Vasselin hasn’t enjoyed much great success here, when it comes to playing average opponents on the surface, he looks a much better bet. The Frenchman is 9-13 (grass) and 25-24 (indoors) versus top 100 players and deserves to be much shorter than 6/7 to win this match.
|Edouard Roger-Vasselin||Match Winner||6/7||Unibet, 888sport|
Samantha Crawford v Paula Kania
In the Ladies I think the bookies might be under-rating the chances of Samantha Crawford when she meets Pole Paula Kania. Ranked over 100 places higher in the rankings, the layers appear to doubt that Crawford has the experience on grass to get the job done against Kania, but I believe overall class could shine through.
Kania has played 54 matches against players currently ranked in the world’s top 100 over the past three years, winning just 15 and losing 39. That record is worse on indoor courts (1-10) and her grass form is not proven against such opponents at 1-2. Comparing those to Crawford, she has won 12 and lost 28 on all surfaces, and while there is no grass record to go on, her form on clay, the opposite surface to grass, has been her weakest (1-6) – so there is every reason to believe she can improve in this one. Back the world ranked 106th player to beat 209th ranked.
|Samantha Crawford||Match Winner||2/1||Sky Bet, BetVictor|