Our tennis betting expert returns to offer his daily betting tips for Wimbledon 2017 – check back every day for his best bets and to see how the tips fare.
|TIPS||WINNERS||LOSERS||VOID||PROFIT/LOSS (to a £10 level stake)|
Day 13 – Sunday 14th July
Marin Cilic v Roger Federer
Roger Federer and Marin Cilic will do battle for the 2017 Wimbledon title on Sunday and it’s going to be a difficult task for the Croatian. He has a 1-6 head-to-head record with Federer, comes into the final potentially slightly fatigued after playing 230 games of tennis in two weeks, and will then have to deal with facing the world’s best grass courter in front of an army of fans who love the Swiss more than a little.
Federer has won Wimbledon seven times of course (and been runner-up three times) but it’s 5 year’s since his last title here and he’ll be desperate to add another to his list of achievements. His motivation is clearly shown by the fact that his entire 2017 schedule has been leading up to this day, and you cannot discount that when considering if the 2/9 quotes about the Swiss are reasonable. My belief is that they are, and we’ll need to find another route of attack to make some cash here.
That line of enquiry could well come in the aces market, when Federer is the 7/2 outsider to serve more than Cilic. Cilic is a big server of course – one of the biggest. He’ll definitely help himself to a decent total, but his figures could be slightly exaggerated – he plays more games per match owing to his serve dominated game, but these two will serve equal numbers of games in a one off match.
Cilic also has more aces served against him, while Federer is notoriously difficult to pass on a first point – usually getting a racket to anything sent his way. For that reason, I think Betfair and Paddy Power could be getting their sums a little wrong, and the 7/2 represents some decent value in what could be a much closer contest.
Federer won the aces battle 27-23 the last time they met on grass last season and you also get your money back if they serve the same amount of aces.
|Roger Federer||Most Aces||7/2||Betfair, Paddy Power|
Day 12 – Saturday 13th July
Garbine Muguruza v Venus Williams
It’s been a terrific ladies event at Wimbledon this year, a real classic with more twists and turns than an Agatha Christie novel – and we are rewarded with a superbly well balanced final between the Wimbledon legend Venus Williams, and the continually improving Garbine Muguruza. Picking a winner in this one looks nigh on impossible.
Making a case for Williams, you could point to her incredible 92-18 career record on grass, and her five titles at SW19. This is her ninth appearance in the final, with her first coming an astonishing 17 years ago. She’s also claimed six Wimbledon doubles titles for good measure along the way! She is yet to drop a set at Wimbledon this season, and has an excellent +29 game difference through the championships.
For Muguruza things have been almost as good – she’s dropped a single set over the past fortnight, and has an even more impressive +37 game difference. Most impressive of all was her 6-1 6-1 defeat of Magdalena Rybarikova in their semi-final, where she was quite frankly giving lessons in dominance. This is Muguruza’s second Wimbledon final in just her fifth appearance in the main competition.
With a gun to my head, I’d probably side with Venus in this one – but it’s too tight to call, so instead I’ll take an outside punt on Muguruza serving the most double faults.
Williams is the more likely of the pair to serve a double – she has averaged 0.42 doubles per service game this tournament, while Muguruza has served 0.28. This is a market where the varience can be big though, and there is every chance of an upset here – so the 4/1 on her serving the most with Sky Bet looks too big.
|Garbine Muguruza||Most Double Faults||4/1||Sky Bet|
Day 11 – Friday 13th July
Roger Federer v Tomas Berdych
It’s been an epic Championship, of that there can be no doubt. Just when it looked like a great semi-final line up of Djokovic, Murray and Federer, two of the biggest names in the game find themselves struck down by injury, and Federer looks to have a clean run to the final.
With an 18-6 head-to-head record for Federer, it could be tempting to chance the big outside prices on Tomas Berdych in their semi, but Federer has been superb in terms of quality and preparation, and has arguably been playing at a level close to his best at any stage in his career. For that reason I can’t argue with the 1/7 quotes.
Where I can disagree is in the Double Faults market, where the stats suggest there is almost nothing to pick between the pair. But the bookmakers have Berdych as their 2/5 favourite, with Federer priced at 7/2 to serve more – but with the tie a very real possibility I’d prefer the 11/5 in the market with stakes returned if it ends a tie.
|Roger Federer||Most Double Faults||11/5||Betfair, Paddy Power|
Day 10 – Thursday 12th July
Garbine Muguruza v Magdalena Rybarikova
The ladies return to court on Thursday for the semi-finals, with Garbine Muguruza, Magdalena Rybarikova, Johanna Konta and Venus Williams all seeking a place in Saturday’s final. I’m going to start with the early match, due on Centre Court at 1pm.
Muguruza has been seeing sustained money since the bookies first published their odds on this one, and is no bigger than 2/5 now, but I believe this match might be much closer than that. Rybarikova is well down the rankings of course, but she benefits from the faster service and could barely be in better form. Having already knocked out Karolina Pliskova and Coco Vandeweghe, she really has demonstrated her ability, and I’ve written before about her exploits at Surbiton and Ilkley where she won both ITF events, and her semi-final aginst Konta at Nottingham.
Muguruza is a player who is much more at home on clay, and she has actually won half as many matches on grass as Rybarikova. The 9/4 on offer about the Russian at Bet365 is an insult to her form over the past six weeks – and I’ll take her to achieve what Angelique Kerber and Elena Kuznetsova failed to do, and beat the Spaniard.
I’ll also take an interest in the Double Fault betting, where Sky Bet make Muguruza their 5/4 favourite to serve the most. Rybarikova is 6/4, with the tie at 5/2. Looking at matches they have played on hard or grass courts in 2017 against Top 50 players we find that Muguruza has served on average 0.15 double faults per game (0.30 per service game), while Rybarikova is a far more efficient 0.06 (0.12 per service game). The 5/4 on the Spaniard being the more careless appeals strongly on those stats.
|Magdalena Rybarikova||Set Betting||9/4||Bet365|
|Garbine Muguruza||Most Double Faults||5/4||Sky Bet|
In the other match, Johanna Konta bids to enter the history books when she plays Venus Williams, and it promises to be a splendid affair. It’s a difficult match to weigh up – on the one hand, Konta has won three of the four meetings between the pair, all three being on hard courts. However, Williams has a terrific grass record, 91-18 at latest count. She’s also knocked out Jelena Ostapenko and Ana Konjuh, so is in dominant form herself. It will surely be a terrific encounter, so I’m prepared to take a watching brief on this one and hope that the longer matches Konta has endured during the Championships so far don’t leave her too fatigued to reach the final!
Day 9 – Wednesday 11th July
Tomas Berdych v Novak Djokovic
I highlighted the likelihood of Novak Djokovic being under-rated by the market in my pre-tournament preview, and that could still be the case when he plays Tomas Berdych on Wednesday. Of course, those of you who backed my outright tips will be hoping he progresses to land our Quarter 4 wager at 5/4 – and I reckon it could be worth going in again on the Serb to progress with a straight-forward 3-0 win.
Djokovic has a terrific record against Berdych, winning 25 of their 27 meetings, including the last 12. Indeed, such has been his dominance, he has taken 27 of their last 29 sets and won their past six meeting in straight sets. Critics might argue that they haven’t met in 2017 – the period of the Djokovic wobble – but I’d prefer to look at how the Serb has been performing over the past couple of weeks, a period that has seen him win eight matches in succession – winning all 18 sets he has played.
Berdych has been altogether less impressive: he was taken the distance by Dominic Thiem, and also had to play 4 sets against both Ryan Harrison and Jeremy Chardy. Over the same three week period, he has won just 17 sets to 9 against, and odds of 11/8 look plain wrong in this one – I would consider this is definite odds-on shot.
|Novak Djokovic 3-0||Set Betting||11/8||Ladbrokes, Coral|
Day 8 – Tuesday 10th July
The Ladies reach the quarter finals on Tuesday, and what a tournament it is shaping up to be, with literally every one of the eight remaining players able to stake a genuine claim to why she should be capable of winning the title this year. The front six in the betting are offered between 9/2 and 7/1!
Johanna Konta v Simona Halep
Johanna Konta has huge support at SW19, and it will surely lift her to deliver her A-game when she meets Simona Halep. Although Halep is ranked 2 in the world, Konta will fancy her chances on grass, with Halep far more comfortable on clay usually. Looking back over the past 12 months, Konta has maintained an 81.7% hold rate on matches played on grass or hard courts, and a break % of 39.3%. Combining the two gives her and impressive 120% total.
Halep in the same period has held serve in just 65.4% of her games and broken her opponents 38.3% of the time, a combined 103.7% – markedly lower. Although she has racked up the results on clay (winning Madrid, runner-up in Rome and Paris) she is beatable here. Konta was runner-up on the grass at Nottingham, and reached the semi-finals in Eastbourne before withdrawing. She’s proved her fitness this week, and looks good value at 10/11 to continue her run and delight the home crowd.
|Johanna Konta||Match Winner||10/11||Bet365, BetVictor|
Magdalena Rybarikova v Coco Vandeweghe
The other match I fancy is between Magdalena Rybarikova and Coco Vandeweghe, where an upset could be on the cards. Rybarikova is enjoying a terrific run of late, and appears to be reaping the benefits of a nice early switch onto grass this season.
She managed to fit in three warm-up events between the French Open and Wimbledon – winning both the Surbiton and Ilkley International tournaments, and reaching the semi-finals in Nottingham – only losing to Johana Konta in that one. Already this tournament the Russian has knocked out pre-tournament favourite Karolina Pliskova, so she’s proved her appetite beyond any reasonable doubt.
Vandeweghe is no slouch herself on grass, with a career 50-21 record – and enjoys the quick surface at Wimbledon, reaching the 4th round last year and the quarter’s in 2015. She is yet to drop a set at these Championships, taking out Caroline Woznaicki along the way, and will be a tough nut to crack, but I just think Rybarikova is being underrated at 6/4 and can cause the American some significant problems.
|Magdalena Rybarikova||Match Winner||6/4||Bet365, BetVictor|
Day 7 – Monday 9th July
Jelena Ostapenko v Elina Svitolina
A great start to Wimbledon has begun to turn after a few tough results. It’s a difficult card again on Monday, with a host of heavy favourites in the mens, and a number in the ladies you just don’t know whether to trust. I’m limiting myself to a single pick on Monday as a result, where I fancy world number 5 Elina Svitolina to beat recent French Open Champion Jelena Ostapenko.
It’s been a great month for Ostapenko in winning her first major title, turning 20 and propelling herself to a career high of 13 in the world – a ranking which will surely continue to improve over the coming years. She is a potential world number 1 in the future, but with a favour towards the slower surfaces, this one could be a little too soon for her against Svitolina.
The Ukrainian has yet to drop a set at Wimbledon, and she will be full of confidence as a result. It is sure to be a close contest, but I fancy she will have the edge, and can justify odds of 5/6 to win this one.
|Elina Svitolina||Match Winner||5/6||Betfair, BetVictor|
Day 6 – Saturday 8th July
Ernests Gulbis v Novak Djokovic
Once again, the pickings are pretty slim in the mens on Saturday – with a host of heavy favourites who look difficult to topple. One of those is Novak Djokovic who faces the world number 589, Ernest Gulbis. Of course, that ranking isn’t reflective of the player Gulbis is, and certainly has been, but more a reflection on the problems he has struggled with over the past couple of seasons.
He’s been much improved this week, cruising past Victor Estrella and then upsetting Juan Martin Del Potro. The former was a nothing match really, with two woefully out of form players competing, but the second has made people sit up a little. But there is a world of difference between Del Potro and Novak Djokovic, whatever people will say about the Serb’s patchy form. He is still one of the very top elite players and won his last match for the loss of just five games. With this in mind we’ll pitch at a strong opening set for Djokovic, and recommend him to win it 6-1 at 9/1 or 6-2 at 11/2.
|Novak Djokovic 6-1||Set 1 Score||9/1||Betfair, Paddy Power|
|Novak Djokovic 6-2||Set 1 Score||11/2||Betfair, Paddy Power|
Day 5 – Friday 7th July
Dominika Cibulkova v Ana Konjuh
With so many of the men’s matches seeing such strong favourites, there are slim pickings to be had on Friday, but the women’s looks a little more competitive. The most interesting puzzle to solve could be Dominika Cibulkova against Ana Konjuh, which sees the world number 9 pitched against the improving world number 29.
It is my belief that the market is paying a little too much credence to a strong set of grass results recently for Konjuh in making this an each of two contest. Whilst it is true that Konjuh reached the semi-finals in Hertogenbosch, she was favourite in each of the three matches she won, and was again when finally beaten in the semis. An accumulator on her successful three wins would only have paid 2/1 indicating she really did nothing more than should have been expected of her. It was a similar story in Mallorca where she reached the quarter-finals.
Cibulkova may not take to grass quite as naturally as Konjuh, but her overall ability could carry her through this one, and we are on the side of the Slovakian at 10/11.
|Dominika Cibulkova||Match Winner||10/11||Betfair, Sky Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral|
Victoria Azarenka v Heather Watson
Heather Watson has made the most of her wild card so far in reaching the third round, but Victoria Azarenka could pose an altogether sterner test when the pair meet given the Belarussian’s terrifc head-to-head advantage. 5-0 is the match tally, and 10-0 the sets tally, but more impressive still has been the ease with which those sets have been won. The average score over those 10 sets has been a whopping 6 – 1.6, and it’s on that basis that I will roll out a 2-0 correct score bet against Watson.
Azarenka looks a fair pick to win this one with something to spare at odds-against.
|Victoria Azarenka 2-0||Set Betting||19/17||Unibet|
Day 4 – Thursday 6th July
Yuichi Sugita v Adrian Mannarino
Yuichi Sugita bids for a second victory over Adrian Mannarino in quick succession when the pair meet on Thursday. The Japanese is bang in form right now, having won the Antalya grass court event (who knew they even had grass in Turkey?). That tournament followed up another recent triumph as he also took down a challenger event at Surbiton, beating a number of middle order players in the process.
With a three year 9-4 winning record against top 100 players on grass, Sugita is more than capable of beating a player like Mannarino, and their records on faster surfaces are reasonably comparable. At 5/6 Sugita looks the value here given he will have the confidence to repeat last week’s outcome between the pair.
|Yuichi Sugita||Match Winner||5/6||Betfair|
Sorana Cirstea v Bethanie Mattek-Sands
In the Ladies Sorana Cirstea looks a solid 8/11 shot against Bethany Mattek-Sands. She has won all three meetings between the ladies, although the most recent of those was 2013, so it shouldn’t play too heavily on our thinking.
The Romanian is the altogether more experienced player despite her younger years and is ranked 40 places higher in the WTA rankings. She has a 4-4 record against Top 100 players on grass over the past three seasons, while her two season form on quicker surfaces is much more appealing: she’s 7-3 against players ranked 10th-50th on hard or grass courts – Mattek Sands is just 3-8. That could be the telling statistic, and we’ll back Cirstea in this one.
|Sorana Cirstea||Match Winner||8/11||Bet365|
Day 3 – Wednesday 5th July
Kyle Edmund started slowly yesterday, and despite turning the screw convincingly in the end, it was too late to save our 3-0 set bet. Fortunately Gilles Simon did the business to give us a little more profit to take into the second round with.
Jiri Vesely v Fabio Fognini
My first fancy on Day 3 is Fabio Fognini, which might sound a brave call on grass. He is a clay man through and through, but so is his opponent Jiri Vesely – who isn’t a great deal more at home on quicker courts. This could become more of a clay match on grass, and when that happens, it can pay to assess the players as an overall, rather than get too hung up on their surface records.
Fognini got a cheap trip into the second round of course, after drawing Dimitri Tursunov – arguably a former tennis player rather than a current one – but he won’t be complaining at all at the easy passage, and it should leave him suitably fresh for this one. The Italian has also won both previous meetings between the pair, both a couple of seasons back, and both on clay.
Vesely has a much tougher test in the first round in the shape of Illya Marchenko, and finally won in five sets. Ranked 20 places lower in the rankings, and offering no real aptitude to the surface, I can’t fancy Vesely – and Fognini gets the nod at 5/6.
|Fabio Fognini||Match Winner||5/6||Betfair|
Pierre-Hugues Herbert v Benoit Paire
Another man able to ration his energies in the first round was Pierre-Hugues Herbert, as he beat Nick Kyrgios 6-3 6-4 ret. It was a match he was never expecting to win, so the pressure should be off in this one as he’s already into bonus territory, Herbert has a decent enough grass record at 21-14 and reached the semi-final of the ABN Amro World Tennis Tour in February – played on another quick court.
All things being equal, Benoit Paire is the better player, but when the surface speeds up, it’s a great leveler, and I’d argue that Herbert should be favourite in this one based on his indoor form and his career choices to avoid clay far more frequently than Paire would. The market is already beginning to move the direction of Herbert, so I’d advise getting stuck into the 11/10 on the Frenchman while it still lasts.
|Pierre-Hugues Herbert||Match Winner||11/10||Unibet|
Day 2 – Tuesday 4th July
Kyle Edmund v Alexander Ward
It was a decent start to the tournament with 2 winners, including one of the shocks of the day as Stanislav Wawrinka was knocked out – so we go again on Tuesday.
The is an interesting all British affair that I think could get the better of Alexander Ward. Ranked 855th in the world, it’s all credit to Ward who has come through qualifying to reach the first round, but he could well find the pressure of meeting Kyle Edmund all too much, and the form lines suggest this will be one way traffic.
Ward is just 3-10 on Grass against Top 300 players, which falls to 0-5 when looking only at Top 100 players. Edmund is currently ranked 48th in the world, and he is 13-1 on all surfaces against players ranked outside the Top 500 over the past three seasons, winning 10 of those in straight sets.
Although he isn’t the most natural grass player, he should be more than good enough to win this one comfortably, and the 3-0 appeals at 5/6.
|Kyle Edmund 3-0||Set Betting||5/6||Unibet|
Gilles Simon v Nicolas Jarry
Another man who should have an easy afternoon is Gilles Simon when he takes on Nicolas Jarry. Almost 150 places separate the men in the world rankings, and while Jarry is showing promise, both experience and surface play against him here. 232 of his 289 career matches have been played on clay, with just 8 on grass, and while he came through qualifying, it was far from convincing, with a 3-1 victory over Dennis Novikov and an 11-9 deciding set against Konstantin Kravchuk.
Gilles Simon hasn’t been in great form, but he lost to Feliciano Lopez in Stuttgart which can be forgiven, and has over 70 grass court matches under his belt, so will be quite at home here.
|Gilles Simon 3-0||Set Betting||6/4||Unibet, Sky Bet|
Day 1 – Monday 3rd July
Dmitry Tursunov v Fabio Fognini
Backing Fabio Fognini on grass would probably not appear in a book on the best money making strategies in history, but I will make an exception this week and back him to beat Dimitri Tursunov 3-0 when the pair meet in the first round at 11/8.
What Tursunov is doing here is the biggest question – he’s failed to play a warm up event to prepare, last appeared in the Australian Open 6 months ago for a cameo single match against Radek Stepanek, and before that the last time he has played was the Canada Masters where we was similarly well beaten by Gilles Muller. In fact, you need to go back to March 2016 for his last tour win – in a challenger event!
Since succumbing to injury, Tursunov has been gradually dropping down the ladder, and with his protected ranking now over, he’s probably just here for the first round money. Fognini is ranked 29th in the worth – over 650 places higher – and should be trusted to get the job done easily in this one. A retirement wouldn’t be an enormous surprise, but we’ll take the 3-0 at 11/8 and hope that the match goes the distance.
|Fabio Fognini 3-0||Set Betting||11/8||Ladbrokes, Coral|
Daniil Medvedev v Stan Wawrinka
One seed who could be find himself under immediate first round pressure is Stan Wawrinka, and I fancy Russian youngster Daniil Medvedev to give him a serious test on Monday. Exceptional grass form of 19-8 over his short career marks him out as a potential surface expert, and he also impressed in Eastbourne with wins over Steve Johnson, Robin Haase & Sam Querrey, before finally losing to Djokovic in the semi’s.
Grigor Dimitrov and Ivo Karlovic knocked him out of the AEGON and Hertogenbosch respectively, so no shame there, and he banked wins against Nicolas Mahut and Haase in those events also.
Wawrinka has never got to grips with grass, and has only a marginally better than 50% record on the surface, which is pretty poor considering he’s number 3 in the world. While he reached the final at Roland Garros, he lost his only warm-up match on Grass to Feliciano Lopez – so could be somewhat rusty. Take 5/2 on Medvedev.
|Daniil Medvedev||Match Winner||5/2||Bet365, Sky Bet, Betfair|