Our weekly review of the latest betting news, including odds for Wales to reach the European Championship Final, plus a big Wimbledon boost for Andy Murray.
1. Unfancied Wales look overpriced
Having upset Belgium to reach the semi-finals of Euro 2016, Wales are still seen as outsiders to reach Sunday’s final in Paris, with Coral quoting 13/8 that they will qualify. Belgium were well fancied to defeat Chris Coleman’s side, but England had already highlighted that Premier League stars can be vastly over-rated and perhaps the most telling aspect of Wales’ win is that they achieved it without a stellar performance from Gareth Bale, with other players shining brighter. In Lyon they’ll be without the outstanding Aaron Ramsey through suspension, but this is so much more than a showdown between Bale and his Real Madrid colleague Cristiano Ronaldo, who has yet to inspire his side to a victory inside 90 minutes in five attempts.
2. Zlatan arrival pushes United’s odds shorter
With just 6 weeks until the start of the new Premier League season, the money continues to flow in support of Man Utd, with punters believing Jose Mourinho can return the title to Old Trafford. As the lights went out on the last season, they were 6/1 shots to win the league next May, but that price has steadily come down and Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s arrival saw them cut to 4/1, with Ladbrokes pushing the favourites Man City out to 12/5. The bookies clearly believe that both Mourinho and Pep Guardiola will have a greater impact than Antonio Conte at Chelsea (13/2 at Bet365), but Conte’s Italy were impressive at the Euros and it will be interesting to see how his tactical approach works at Stamford Bridge.
3. Djokovic exit clears path for even money Murray
Prior to his third round tie against John Millman on Saturday, Andy Murray was a 7/2 shot to win his second Wimbledon title, but that price was washed away by the news of Novak Djokovic’s shock defeat at the hands of Sam Querrey. Murray is now a best price of Evens with Paddy Power, with Nick Kyrgios standing in his way in the fourth round, and Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet the other leading seeds in his half of the draw. Roger Federer, the seven-time champion and now 7/2 second favourite with Ladbrokes, is in the top-half of the draw along with Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic.
4. Kaymer returns to form ahead of Troon
With the Open Championship now just a fortnight away, Martin Kaymer’s return to form on the European Tour is attracting some attention. The German recorded his fourth successive top 10 in Europe at last week’s Open de France, with Bet365 now offering the best odds of 55/1 (40/1 elsewhere). A two-time major winner and former world no.1, for eight weeks in 2011, Kaymer won both The Players Championship and the US Open in 2014, but has lost his way since and is currently outside the world’s top 50. However, his game appears to be coming together once again and he could well be a contender at Royal Troon. Meanwhile, fellow Ryder Cup star Sergio Garcia is currently a 28/1 shot and has a remarkable record at The Open, with nine Top 10 finishes in the last 15 years.
5. Betting turmoil as Gove stuns Boris
All assumptions surrounding who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party were blown apart last Thursday by Michael Gove’s shock announcement that he would stand. He’d been a 66/1 chance to succeed David Cameron beforehand, but nobody had foreseen what was coming next, least of all the man who up until that point had been the 6/5 favourite for the role, Boris Johnson. Gove’s price plummeted to a best of 7/2, with Theresa May installed as the new favourite at 4/7, from 7/4, but it soon became apparent that the Justice Secretary’s treacherous behaviour would not easily be forgiven by party members, with only a handful of MPs turning out in support for a speech outlining his candidacy on Friday, appallingly timed to coincide with the Somme memorial ceremony. Gove’s support has dwindled and he is now out to best odds of 16/1 with Bet365, with leading Brexit campaigner Andrea Leadsom in the battle at 3/1 with Ladbrokes. Over the weekend May’s price has continued to shorten, with the current Home Secretary now no bigger than the 4/11 with Coral to be the next Prime Minister.