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Breeders Cup 2016 – Day 1 Rambling

We move from one side of the globe to the other this week, as we fly from Australia to America for this year’s Breeders Cup meeting. Unfortunately, Melbourne turned out to be ‘Heartbreak City’ for us, but let’s dust ourselves down and go again.

The key to making money at the Breeders Cup is to bear in mind that most races will be won by the American horses. Saying that, the European horses can and will win, but we just can’t follow them blindly, like a male chauvinist voting for Trump. Money talks, loyalty walks, so let’s keep that in mind and crack on.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf     ATR

Here we have a race for the 2-year-olds, run on the grass track over a mile; the first of four races to get us underway on Day 1 of the Breeders Cup 2016 meeting.

This is the calm before tomorrow’s storm, but let’s dip our toes in the water and try to sneak a few quid to go to war with on Saturday. Aidan O’Brien has two fancied runners here, who both bring a high level of form over from Ireland. The form of Intelligence Cross is there for all to see – he has been mixing it with the best 2-year olds in Britain and Ireland all year and in doing so has far from disgraced himself.

Aidan’s other runner, LANCASTER BOMBER is not so easy to figure out. He has been deployed as a pacemaker for Churchill for much of the year, so it is hard to see what will happen when he is allowed to run his own race. I was very impressed with him last time though when he made the pace for Churchill, who eventually passed him and went on to win, but the Bomber stayed on again at the finish and wasn’t beaten too far in second. He gets an extra furlong here and is the pick of this bunch, so, let’s start with a nice each-way bet at 8/1 and hope that he blows the rest of them away.

At bigger prices, Made You Look could go well for the home side (14/1 with Bet365).

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Lancaster Bomber (ew)9.25 Santa Anita8/1Betfred, Ladbrokes

Las Vegas Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile     ATR

The Breeders Cup Dirt Mile – like Ronseal, it does exactly what it says on the tin: a mile race run on the dirt. DORTMUND is a horse you will hear described as ‘a short priced favourite’ for this race, however 11/10 looks huge to me and I suspect he will be odds-on at the track. His last three starts have seen him chase home the Classic favourite, California Chrome, in fact running that horse to a half a length only three starts ago. He is miles better than these and I don’t see him being beat.

Runhappy is a serious horse but they should have sent him to the sprint, he won’t stay this trip, while Tamarkuz, is the horse who can finish second if finding the form he held in Britain. However, it’s a solid win bet on Dortmund for me and for those who want a bigger price, he is the first leg of a recommended double on day one.

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Dortmund (win)10.05 Santa Anita11/10Sky Bet

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf     ATR

Another 2-year-old race on the turf, but this time it’s for the ladies. The European team here is strong as they have three super fillies running for them – Aidan O’Brien trains two of them, Hydrangea and Roly Poly, with his son Joseph training the other, Intricately. Intricately beat Hydrangea in the Moyglare but I wouldn’t be surprised if that result was reversed here. Roly Poly would appear to have a similar level of form – so any of these three could win.

However, I just think that the Frankie Dettori ridden SPAIN BURG is the best juvenile filly I have seen this year. Last seen in Europe where she bolted up in a Group 2 over 7 furlongs, she was subsequently sold to USA for €1.5 million and she could be even better over this extra furlong. This is a big each-way bet for me at the 5/1 on offer.

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Spain Burg (ew)10.50 Santa Anita5/1Coral

Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff     ATR

A fillies and mares race on the dirt, in what I can only describe as the race of the day, if not the whole festival, with three of the best fillies in training going to post.

The 11/10 favourite is Songbird, who won the juvenile fillies race here last year. She has won 11 races on the spin, including 7 G1’s, but what has she beaten?

Next up is Stellar Wind, another exceptional filly. She was second in this last year and beat my selection, and third of the big three, BEHOLDER, on her last two starts. But those wins were narrow and I feel this race might pan out in Beholder’s favour.

A winner of 10 G1’s herself, Beholder chased home California Chrome two starts ago and had Dortmund, tipped earlier, back in third. The form of that run stands out to me and I believe her two defeats to Stellar Wind can be put down to making the pace and being nabbed late. I see Songbird leading here and that will hopefully set the race up for our filly. We could have no better man than Gary Stevens on board and this is also the second leg of the double, with Dortmund, mentioned earlier.

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Beholder (win)11.35 Santa Anita9/2Sky Bet
Dortmund & Beholder (win double)10.05 & 11.35 Santa Anita11.55/1Sky Bet