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Galway Festival 2016 – Day 3 Ramblings

Alright folks, I should have done the crossbar challenge today, as it is safe to say I smashed more than a few into smithereens. We didn’t manage to bag a winner, but with some big priced each-way recommendations placed, we can’t complain.

Magens Moon (tipped at 12/1) looked a winner two out but still managed third to get us the place profit (SP 8/1), and then Top Notch Tonto came just too late in the big one but still bagged second at an SP of 12/1, having been tipped up at 20/1.

10/1 Bainne managed to milk us some profit with 4th in a blanket finish and then Automated went off a shadow of the advised price of 9/1 – finishing third at 11/4.

Below you will find Wednesday’s Galway Festival tips. Our Goodwood tipsters may or may not agree but I think The Ghurka gets his revenge in the 3.10 at Goodwood tomorrow. Please check out their preview tomorrow morning to find out though – as they gifted us two winners and a second from the four races previewed today.

Tote Maiden Hurdle     ATR

Silver Concorde is the best horse in this race by a mile. I’ve no idea how he is still a maiden over hurdles. He won the Cheltenham bumper back in 2014 before finishing second in the Punchestown version. He was second then at Christmas in his first run over hurdles, in a maiden at Leopardstown. He was sent off that day at odds of 1/3. His next run saw him finish 4th in a Grade 1 hurdle around the same track, this time behind Nichols Canyon, which shows the class of that race.

It was all flat runs then, until Christmas last year, when he again finished second at odds-on, in the same maiden hurdle at Leopardstown he had contested a year previously. He then went on to finish last in a Cheltenham novices hurdle.

He has had two flat runs in big races since, one being a third in the Chester Cup before unplaced at Royal Ascot. He comes here today in an attempt to break that maiden tag and you should commit yourself right now if you think that backing him to do that at odds of just 1/2, at Galway, is a wise move. I am telling you, people have been sectioned for less.

Apparently, his aim after this is Thursday’s Galway Hurdle, so he really should be winning this, and he may well, but you would have to lay him all day. However, we will simply side with an each-way bet against him and let him win if he wants.

Hopefully in that case, we’ll be placed and do no damage. I wouldn’t be convinced by Gone Platinum or All The Answers who are next in the betting, so instead I will side with BENNY IN MILAN who won a recent bumper and makes a hurdle debut.

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Benny In Milan (ew)3.00 Galway12/1Bet365, Boylesports

Tote E.B.F. Mares Handicap Hurdle     ATR

This is a wide open mare handicap hurdle with 20 runners going to post over 2 miles. Ruby Walsh looks to have the obvious favourite. He is riding for James Nash on what looks to be a horse laid out by a man well capable of just that.

However, Comehere Hi is surely shorter than he should be at 8/1 with Ruby up, so I’ll look elsewhere.

POPBORU is a horse I like. She was running consistently over 2 miles without winning. They upped her in trip to 2.5 miles and she bagged a couple of wins. I backed her the last day in Cork where she was done close home and finished second. It may look like a drop back in trip is not what she needs, but on that run in Cork I can see 2 miles around Galway, finishing up the hill, being bang up her street. She is a mare in form and give me one of those any day of the week.

Others that can be involved in an open race are The Brock Inn and Our Kylie, whilst don’t be surprised if the gangster Charles Byrnes has laid Crystal Pearl out for this. However, Popboru is the one for me and I’ll happily back her each-way.

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Popboru (ew)3.35 Galway10/1Boylesports

The Tote Handicap Hurdle     ATR

Sea Light is the 6/1 favourite here for the honourable trainer, Mr Charles Byrnes. Truth be known, god only knows what the true current form of this horse is, and we can say the same for pretty much all his horses.

This horse was gambled on twice, in Leopardstown, at Christmas back in 2013. He went on to win both races within 3 days. His form prior to that was useless, and his form since, has also been useless. So of course, on that basis, he should win.

I can’t be guessing whether these trainers have been blatantly stopping the likes of this fellow for the big day, so I will be ignoring him and looking to horses that have shown something. I am looking at two horses who contested the same race at Killarney about 10 days ago.

On that occasion, BLACK BENNY idled in front and was caught by Kennedys Mor, who re-opposes today. Black Benny is 2Ib better off here than he was in Killarney and I think if the jockey delays hitting the front too soon, this horse will win. There is no better man at such tactics, than Denis O’Regan, who takes the ride.

Of the rest, Kennedys Mor is very much a danger once again, while He Is Top Class could run better than his price suggests, based on his last hurdles run.

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Black Benny (ew)4.10 Galway10/1Boylesports

Tote (Q.R.) Maiden     ATR

This is an awful maiden. I watched A SHIN KILDARE run last time out at the Curragh, where I was told beforehand that it would win. It was no great shock to me however that it didn’t, with Galway coming up. He finished third that day and I am quite sure he was looked after with this in mind. I don’t normally tip Weld maiden horses at Galway but this is a terrible standard race. It will win I’m afraid.

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
A Shin Kildare (win)4.45 Galway8/13Paddy Power

Galway Plate     ATR

The big race of the day is the 2m 6f Galway Plate. This is somewhat of a lottery handicap, where 22 runners take on the fences – finding the winner will not be easy, but find it we will.

The race resolves around Road to Riches who went from pillar to post in this race 2 years ago and romped home. He is 9/2 clear favourite here today but is carrying 11 stone 10 pounds on his back, 9 pounds more than his nearest rivals. Many will see this as a free each-way bet and that’s why I say the race revolves around him.

I don’t like this horse however and wouldn’t be going near backing him with top weight at 9/2. He is owned by that always smiling and charming Ryanair PR guru, Michael O’Leary, but I actually prefer another of his horses, CLARCAM, who has been running well of late and it looks to me like this step up in trip will suit him.

Another horse to note is one of the English challengers, JUNCTION FOURTEEN. He has only had one run this year when winning a nice race at Sandown and he would look to have been trained with today in mind.

However, as my main bet, and I am not impressed with myself for tipping this rogue again, but THE TULLOW TANK is going to win a big one someday and at the prices I will take a chance that it’s today. He is 22/1 and on his juvenile form it just looks too big; he was favourite to beat Vautour over hurdles a couple of years ago.

Get the 22s with Paddy Power who (along with Bet365) are offering 5 places here.

The Tank is like the English soccer team in that he is a constant disappointment, but the truth is that this is a really good horse, so the expectations are warranted, unlike with the English football team, who are just a bunch of shitebags.

He’s the main each-way bet but in a race like this throw a few darts and hopefully one, or more, will land on target. Of the outsiders, HOME FARM is a horse I have shares in, so I wouldn’t be letting him slide without a skydiver each-way.

Prediction:

1st The Tullow Tank (22/1 Paddy Power)
2nd Junction Fourteen (12/1 Paddy Power)
3rd Clarcam (14/1 Paddy Power)
4th Home Farm (33/1 Bet365)

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
The Tullow Tank (ew)5.30 Galway22/1Paddy Power

TheTote Handicap     ATR

The first of two extremely tricky flat handicaps both run over a mile here – and it’s roughly 7/1 the field, so that shows what we are dealing with.

That favourite is a horse called Serefeli, who was backed as if defeat was out of the question at Gowran 3 days ago. I am sure those backers will be out in force to recoup their losses here, or their potential profit as I hope the case may be. I assume it was an each-way gamble.

However, I like a horse down the bottom of the weights who has been running in England lately. LADY FANDANGO is trained by Gordon Elliot and won’t be lacking from the saddle with McDonagh up. She looks a very tasty each-way bet at 10/1.

Of the rest, Cairdiuil is a winner of this race back in 2014 and might be worth chancing as the danger, at bigger prices.

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Lady Fandango (ew)6.05 Galway10/1Boylesports

Tote Handicap     ATR

A wide open flat handicap run over a mile here. There is no real stand-out favourite in the race with different bookies offering various ideas of their own.

A horse that is consistent throughout though, at around 8/1, is PALOMAS. That is my idea of the winner. She has won her last 2 on similar ground at slightly longer trips but I don’t think this drop in trip will bother her here, with the stiff finish.

Elsewhere, the race is littered with dangers but a horse who won nicely last time out, called Whiskey Sour, could be the main one.

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Palomas (ew)6.40 Galway9/1BetVictor

The Tote Maiden     ATR

Bromance would be my idea of the winner here but with Mr Weld’s bromance with Galway I’d run a mile from this race.

Bromance (5th) finished ahead of the Weld horse, Newcross (6th) in what was both their first run last time out. On that basis you would assume he would do the same here. However, Newcross was probably tired that day after walking to the track. We saw what Eziyra did on Tuesday.