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Tour de France 2015 Tips

itv4 Sat 4th – Sun 26th July

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Nairo QuintanaRace Winner5/2Ladbrokes
Tejay van Garderen (ew)Race Winner40/1Paddy Power
Mark Cavendish3 Or More Stage Wins7/4Paddy Power

The 2015 Tour de France has the potential to be the best in a generation, if the Big 4 of Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali all manage to avoid crashes, which scuppered Froome and Contador’s chances last year and left Nibali to ride to an easy victory (his winning margin of 7 minutes was the biggest since 1997). Of particular concern are the cobbles on Stage 4, especially if it is wet.

Chris Froome

Chris-FroomeFroome is the bookies pre-race favourite. He won the Vuelta a Andalucia early in the season, then returned following illness to finish third in the Tour de Romandie and recently won the Criterium du Dauphine. The Sky train has shown frailties this season, but the Sky Tour de France team now looks strong, with Geraint Thomas only just missing out on winning the Tour de Suisse and Wout Pouls very impressive in the mountains at the Criterium du Dauphine. However, given the bias of the parcours being away from time trials and towards mountains, including 6 mountain summit finishes, best odds of 21/10 (BetVictor) look no value.

Nairo Quintana

Quintana is second favourite at a best price of 5/2 with Ladbrokes; the mountains specialist did not ride the 2014 Tour de France, in favour of riding a particularly mountainous edition the 2014 Giro d’Italia (which he won by nearly 3 minutes), but was second to Froome in the 2013 Tour de France. This year he won the Tirreno-Adriatico and there is no dispute that he is the Movistar team leader, with newly crowned Spanish road race champion Alejandro Valverde his no.2 – and there are other good teammates for Quintana in the mountains. That said, you can’t totally discount Valverde (66/1 BetVictor) who in Plan B if anything happens to Quintana.

Alberto Contador

Contador (4/1 Bet365) comes into the Tour de France in great form following his Giro d’Italia victory; the Spaniard beat Quintana into second in the Route du Sud. It does though seem unlikely anyone could complete the rare Giro and Tour double given the quality of the opposition, and during important stages in the mountains in the Giro, his Tinkoff-Saxo teammates were conspicuous by their absence.

Vincenzo Nibali

Nibali has been in sporadic form, finishing 10th in the Tour de Romandie and having some very good and some poor days in the Criterium du Dauphine. But his form coming into the 2014 Tour de France was equally patchy and he has just retained his Italian Road Race title. His Astana team were dominant in the mountains at the Giro and the Italian can be backed at 5/1 with BetVictor to win a second consecutive Tour de France.

The Rest

Outside the Big 4, the each way betting options are Thibaut Pinot (3rd last year and 4th in the Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour de Romandie) at 28/1 with Titanbet, Tejay van Garderen (5th in last year’s Tour, 1st in the Volta a Catalunya and just beaten by Froome into 2nd place in the Criterium du Dauphine) at 40/1 with Paddy Power, Joaquim Rodriguez (winner of the Tour of the Basque Country, but 8th in the Criterium du Dauphine) also at 40/1 with Paddy Power, plus the aforementioned Alejandro Valverde at 66/1 with BetVictor.

Mark Cavendish

Mark CavendishFinally, it will be very interesting to see how many stage wins Mark Cavendish can add to his tally of 25 in six Tour De France to date (if you discount last year’s stage 1 exit after crashing). An average of over 4 stage wins per tour makes Paddy Power‘s odds of 7/4 that he wins three or more stages very appealing, especially given the form he showed when collecting the silver medal at the British national championship on Sunday, plus the absence of his main rival Marcel Kittel – who won four stages in both 2013 and 2014.

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Nairo QuintanaRace Winner5/2Ladbrokes
Tejay van Garderen (ew)Race Winner40/1Paddy Power
Mark Cavendish3 Or More Stage Wins7/4Paddy Power