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Weekend Premier League Tips

This weekend’s televised games include Steven Gerrard’s last match at Anfield for Liverpool and Arsenal’s visit to Old Trafford. Our Premier League tips are below.

Southampton v Aston Villa

bt-sport1 Saturday 16th May / 12.45pm

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Over 3.5Total Goals13/5BetVictor
Southampton 3-1Correct Score14/1Betfred
Southampton 3-2Correct Score33/1Ladbrokes
Graziano PelleFirst Goalscorer5/1Ladbrokes
Tom CleverleyFirst Goalscorer22/1Stan James
Tom CleverleyAnytime Goalscorer9/1Stan James

The Saints face a side in Villa on Saturday that have really found form of late – Tim Sherwood’s men have lost just one of their last five league games. Southampton on the other hand have won just one of their last five games, but they remain very strong in front of their own fans – they have only conceded 12 league goals in 18 games at St Mary’s this season.

However, as this is their last league game of the season at home we feel they may approach this game more offensively than usual, and there may well be goals in this match as a consequence. Our first recommended bet then is to back ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ at 13/5 with BetVictor.

We also suggest backing a few high scoring home wins. Let’s take the best 3-1 and 3-2 odds available – Betfred offer 14/1 on the 3-1 (with the added bonus that they refund losing Correct Score stakes on all televised games that finish 1-1), while the 3-1 is a stand-out 33/1 with Ladbrokes.

Graziano Pelle has notched 11 league goals this season and he should be backed to score first here at 5/1 with Ladbrokes, while the in-form Tom Cleverley – he has scored in three consecutive games for Villa – should also be backed to score the first goal at a huge 22/1 with Stan James, who also offer 9/1 on him to score at any time.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace

SkySports1 Saturday 16th May / 5.30pm

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Steven GerrardAnytime Goalscorer21/10Paddy Power
Raheem Sterling (ew)First Goalscorer6/1Paddy Power
Over 3.5Total Goals2/1William Hill
Liverpool 3-1Correct Score12/1Bet365
Liverpool 4-1Correct Score22/1Betfred

What price Steven Gerrard scores on his Anfield farewell? Well, he is available at best odds of 21/10 with Paddy Power and we wouldn’t put anyone off having a bet at that price, as he is sure to be given every opportunity by his colleagues. Of course he also takes free kicks and penalties and don’t forget that he is the leading goalscorer (12) for Liverpool this season, so it wouldn’t just be a sentimental bet.

But we can see a price out of kilter here in the First Goalscorer market and that is Paddy Power’s 6/1 on Raheem Sterling (as short as 4/1 elsewhere). He is Liverpool’s second highest goalscorer (11) this season and will play the central role up front.

We can see goals here and again we put up the ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ option at best odds of 2/1 with William Hill, while we also suggest backing the 3-1 and 4-1 home wins.  Bet365 offer odds of 12/1 on the 3-1 and the 4-1 to Liverpool is 22/1 with Betfred.

Swansea v Manchester City

SkySports1 Sunday 17th May / 1.30pm

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
YesBoth Teams To Score10/11Ladbrokes
Over 3.5Total Goals2/1William Hill
Manchester City 3-1Correct Score12/1Betfred
Manchester City 3-2Correct Score22/1Betfred
Swansea 3-1Correct Score40/1Betfred
Swansea 3-2Correct Score40/1Betfred
Sergio AgueroFirst Goalscorer10/3Sky Bet
Ki Sung Yong (ew)First Goalscorer20/1Bet365
Wilfried BonyAnytime Goalscorer7/5Bet365, Ladbrokes

Swansea caused an upset by beating Arsenal at the Emirates on Monday, but we tipped the 0-1 win at odds of 28/1. This weekend they host Manchester City at the Liberty Stadium and with the three previous meetings between these sides here having finished in a home win, a draw and an away win – anything could happen.

Once again though we think there will be goals. Swansea will come out firing in their final league game of the season and this will allow Manchester City’s pacy and skilful midfield space to counter attack – and as we saw against QPR last weekend, they are deadly at using this tactic. Let’s take the ‘Both Teams To Score’ option at best odds of 10/11 with Ladbrokes and use that as the basis for covering some other bets.

We are going to suggest the ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ option at 2/1 with William Hill again, and then also recommend perming a few high scoring Correct Scores. The Swansea 3-1 and 3-2 wins are both 40/1 and the Man City 3-1 and 3-2 wins are available at 12/1 and 22/1, all with Betfred and that refund if the game finishes 1-1.

First Goalscorer bets should centre around the Premier League’s top scorer, Sergio Aguero, who is now on 25 goals following his hat-trick against QPR last Sunday. He is 10/3 with Sky Bet to score first. We also suggest backing Swansea’s top scorer – Ki Sung Yong has eight league goals and he can be backed at a huge 20/1 with Bet365.

Finally, Wilfried Bony can be backed at 7/5 with Bet365 or Ladbrokes to score at any time against his old club.

Manchester United v Arsenal

SkySports1 Sunday 17th May / 4pm

RECOMMENDED BETSMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Draw1X25/2Bet365
Manchester United 2-1Correct Score9/1Betfred
Arsenal 2-1Correct Score10/1Betfred
1-1Correct Score6/1Bet365
Danny WelbeckFirst Goalscorer15/2Stan James
Olivier GiroudFirst Goalscorer13/2Coral

In years gone by this fixture has helped determine who won the title, although Arsenal have the greater incentive to win on Sunday as they still have a chance of finishing second in the table this season.

But United are 6/4 favourites to win with Betfred, with Arsenal available at 2/1 with Bet365 – although the best bet may well be the draw at 5/2 with Bet365.

These games are usually tight affairs – there has not been a match with more than one goal separating the sides since that infamous 8-2 United win back in August 2011. Since then, the Gunners have only beaten United once in all competitions – but that came in March of this year with a 2-1 FA Cup victory here at Old Trafford. That was one of four 2-1’s in their last seven games – three have gone to United.

In the belief that the draw is likely – we will bet strategically by backing both the 2-1 results with Betfred – so you will get your stakes back if the game finishes 1-1 – at 9/1 (2-1 United) and 10/1 (2-1 Arsenal), plus the 1-1 at 6/1 with Bet365 (money back should the game finish 0-0).

Finally, we’ll take Danny Welbeck to score first against his old side (he scored the winner against them here in March) at 15/2 with Stan James, as well as the stand-out 13/2 with Coral on Olivier Giroud to score first (just 5/1 elsewhere).

It is worth noting that Ladbrokes are offering new customers enhanced odds of 8/1 on United to win this game or 10/1 on Arsenal to win here.